Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Johnstone win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Johnstone win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Johnstone would win this match.