Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Raith Rovers win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Motherwell had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Raith Rovers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Motherwell win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Raith Rovers would win this match.