With two games of the domestic season left to play, SC Farense will look to break out of the bottom two of the Primeira Liga table on Saturday, as they welcome Tondela.
Having failed to win any of their last four games, Os Leoes de Faro find themselves three points adrift of automatic safety and two points behind Boavista in the relegation playoff place, meaning Jorge Costa's side will look to win both of their final two games to stand a real chance of avoiding the drop.
Match preview
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Farense suffered a heavy defeat last time out, as they took on Porto away from home with the chance to break out of the relegation zone.
The hosts took a three-goal lead inside 20 minutes through Mehdi Taremi, Antonio Martinez and Luis Diaz, and Farense's day was made even worse when winger Bilel Aouacheria was sent off after half an hour.
Taremi then got on the scoresheet again and Joao Mario added a fifth for Porto, before Lica netted a consolation goal for the visitors in the dying minutes.
That 5-1 defeat followed three consecutive draws for Farense, most recently being held by sixth-placed Vitoria de Guimaraes due to a late goal.
Jorge Costa's side went a goal down after just two minutes, but a Pedro Henrique brace meant that they led 2-1 for the majority of the game until Vitoria winger Ricardo Quaresma netted an equaliser in the 91st minute to force Os Leoes de Faro to share the points.
As a result of their disappointing recent form, Costa's men find themselves three points adrift of automatic safety, having failed to capitalise on other sides at the bottom of the table dropping points.
They are not yet condemned to relegation though, as a win could see them move ahead of Boavista in the relegation playoff place and Rio Ave in 15th spot, depending on other results.
They take on a Tondela side who will look to bounce back from a disappointing 3-1 home defeat to Belenenses in a mid-table clash last time out.
Mario Gonzalez put CDT Auriverdes ahead in the third minute, but a Mateo Cassierra brace and a Miguel Cardoso penalty turned the game on its head, sealing a comfortable victory for the visitors.
That meant that Pako Ayestaran's side have picked up just two points from their last four league outings, having only drawn with strugglers Famalicao and Boavista.
As a result, CDT Auriverdes have dropped into the bottom half of the Primeira Liga table, now sitting in 12th spot, although they remain only four points behind seventh-placed Santa Clara.
While they are by no means threatened by the drop, Ayestaran's side will be hoping to break their four-game winless run to climb back up the table in the last two games to achieve a more creditable finish in the top half.
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Team News
SC Farense come into this game without winger Bilel Aouacheria, who will miss out through suspension after his red card last time out.
In his absence, Madi Queta and Fabricio Isidoro will battle for the spot on the right-hand side, joining Lica, Ryan Gauld and Pedro Henrique in the attacking line.
Gauld has been the talisman for Farense this season, registering eight goals and seven assists in 31 top-flight appearances.
The only other absentee should be goalkeeper Rafael Defendi, and veteran Beto has stepped into the side since his injury.
Tondela should come into this game with a full squad to choose from, with no new injury concerns for Ayestaran to deal with.
Their line will be led by Mario Gonzalez, who has taken his tally to 15 league goals for the season with six goals in his last six Primeira Liga outings.
At the other end of the pitch, Yohan Tavares and Enzo Martinez Suarez should partner up at the heart of the defence again, despite conceding three goals to Beleneneses last time out.
SC Farense possible starting lineup:
Beto; Tavares, Cesar, Scheid, Abner; Lucca, Oudrhiri; Lica, Gauld, Isidoro; Henrique
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Almeida, Tavares, Suarez, Ferreira; Pedro, Grau; Agra, Olabe, Barbosa; Gonzalez
We say: SC Farense 2-1 Tondela
Considering their requirement for a victory and Tondela's poor result last time out, we fancy Farense to seal a crucial win on Saturday.
Costa's men will be desperate to bounce back from the heavy defeat to Porto, and Saturday's home game presents a good opportunity to pick up a result against a side who have little to play for in the league.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Farense win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Farense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for SC Farense in this match.
