Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Raed win with a probability of 59.79%. A win for Abha had a probability of 20.14% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Raed win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 1-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Abha win was 1-2 (5.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Raed would win this match.