Preview: Sao Paulo vs Fluminense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sao Paulo will aim to build on their newly found rhythm as they welcome struggling Fluminense to MorumBIS this weekend for round 17 of the Brasileiro Serie A.

The hosts are unbeaten in three matches, having won their last two, while the visitors have suffered three straight defeats since returning from the Club World Cup.

Match preview

Sao Paulo have not enjoyed the most consistent campaign in Brazil’s top flight this year, but recent signs suggest the team may finally be settling into a groove.

Hernan Crespo’s men stitched together back-to-back league wins for the first time this season after grinding out a 1-0 away victory at Juventude last weekend, courtesy of a late strike from 32-year-old forward Luciano.

That result not only delivered Tricolor Paulista’s first Serie A away victory of the campaign but also lifted them into the Copa Sudamericana bracket, with the side currently 12th on the table, after collecting 19 points from 16 matches (W4, D7, L5).

However, Sao Paulo are walking a fine line, sitting just one point ahead of Ceara in 13th, who have a game in hand, while Gremio in 14th trail by only two points with two matches still to play, so the importance of picking up a positive result this weekend cannot be overstated as the hosts look to consolidate their continental position.

Crespo’s side have been average at home this year, having claimed only 12 of a possible 24 points at MorumBIS with a record of three wins, three draws and two losses, while scoring and conceding eight goals apiece, though they do boast a strong recent home record against this weekend’s opponents.

Indeed, Fluminense have fallen short in their last two visits to Sao Paolo, which makes this weekend’s task even more daunting given the current state of affairs for the visitors.

Renato Gaucho’s men have looked a shadow of themselves since returning from the Club World Cup, where they put together an impressive run before being knocked out by eventual champions Chelsea in the semi-finals.

Nense entered that tournament riding back-to-back league wins but have lost all three matches since resuming domestic duties.

The Big Flu were beaten 2-0 by Cruzeiro before suffering a narrow 1-0 loss to Flamengo, followed by a 2-1 defeat away to Palmeiras last time out, and while the results may sting, Fluminense did come against the current top-three sides in the top flight.

The Rio de Janeiro club remains eighth in the standings with 20 points from 14 matches (W6, D2, L6), but even a win this weekend would not move them up the ladder, as they still trail seventh-placed Mirassol by four points.

More concerning for Fluminense is their away form, having collected just seven points from as many outings on the road in this season’s top flight, so even a draw would be seen as a decent result given the circumstances.

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:

Fluminense Brasileiro form:

Fluminense form (all competitions):

Team News

Sao Paulo continue to contend with injury issues, with several players still unavailable, including Ryan Francisco, Luiz Gustavo, Lucas Moura, Lucca Marques, Ferreirinha, Jonathan Calleri and Oscar.

Crespo is expected to stick with his favoured 3-5-2 formation and likely retain the same lineup from their most recent win, meaning Andre Silva and the in-form Luciano should lead the line once again.

Luciano has been involved in all five goals scored by the team across their last three matches, so he will be central to their hopes of finding the net this weekend.

Meanwhile, Fluminense will be without 31-year-old defensive midfielder Otavio (knee) and centre-back Ignacio (Achilles tendon), with both players still undergoing rehabilitation.

Head coach Gaucho has alternated between a back three and a four-man defence over the last three matches, but whichever shape he settles on, veteran defender Thiago Silva is likely to return to the starting lineup after featuring off the bench against Palmeiras.

The gaffer has opted for a lone striker system in recent weeks, and German Cano should retain his spot in that role after converting from the penalty spot in their last outing.

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:

Rafael; Ferraresi, Arboleda, Sabino; Cedric, Bobadilla, Antonio, Allison, Wendell; Luciano, A Silva

Fluminense possible starting lineup:

Fabio; Xavier, T Silva, Freytes, Fuentes; Martinelli, Hercules, Arias, Nonato, Soteldo; Cano

We say: Sao Paulo 1-1 Fluminense

While Fluminense’s recent dip could be pinned on a demanding run of fixtures, facing a Sao Paulo side positioned below them might offer a window of opportunity.

However, with the hosts enjoying a purple patch, claiming all three points may be a tall order for the visitors, so a stalemate appears the most likely outcome.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.