Round 23 of the Portuguese Primeira Liga comes to an end on Monday when Santa Clara and Portimonense go head to head at the Estadio de Sao Miguel.
The Alvinegros will be seeking to complete a league double over the hosts after claiming a 2-1 victory when the sides met in September's reverse fixture.
Match preview
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Santa Clara failed to move into the top half of the Primeira Liga standings last Saturday when they fell to a 2-1 defeat away to Benfica at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
After Mohammad Mohebi netted in the 20th minute to hand the visitors a first-half lead, Darwin Nunez came up trumps for As Aguias in the second half as he struck twice in a two-minute spell to turn the game around.
Prior to that, Os Acoreanos were on an impressive five-game unbeaten run in the league — their longest streak without a Primeira Liga defeat June 2020 — claiming three wins and two draws.
After struggling for form at the start of the season, where they managed just one win from their opening 12 league games, Mario Silva will be impressed with his side's turnaround in recent weeks as they are currently 11th in the Primeira Liga standings, two points and two places off Monday's visitors in the top half of the table.
This has been owing to their resilient performance on home turf where they are currently unbeaten in five games and rank seventh in the home record standings with 18 points from 11 games.
In contrast, Santa Clara have found it difficult on the road this season, managing just one win in 11 outings and boasting the league's third-worst record with just six points from 33 available.
Meanwhile, Portimonense continue to struggle for form in the Primeira Liga as they were involved in a share of the spoils for the second game running last time out when they played out a 1-1 draw with Boavista.
In an end-to-end affair at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao, newly-signed forward Ricardo Matos opened his account for the hosts inside the opening 18 minutes but Petar Musa restored parity 23 minutes later.
Portimonense have now failed to taste victory in any of their last eight games across all competitions, claiming three draws and losing five, including a shock 4-2 loss against Segunda Liga side Mafra in the Taca de Portugal back in January.
While they have scored in each of their last 11 games, Paulo Sergio's side's struggles have come at the defensive end of the pitch, where they failed to keep a clean sheet and shipped 17 goals since a 1-0 win at Moreirense on December 12.
While Portimonense will look to end this dry spell and resume their charge for the Conference League qualification places, next up is the stern test of facing an opposing side who are unbeaten in six of the last seven league meetings between the sides since 2018.
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Team News
Costinha sustained a severe Achilles tendon injury in August's game against Moreirense and the 29-year-old forward remains out of contention for the hosts.
The attacking duo of Lincloln and Crysan are back available for Santa Clara as they served their suspension in the game against Benfica after both picking up red cards versus Gil Vicente two weeks back.
Portimonense, on the other hand, will make do with the absence of Achraf Lazaar after the Moroccan full-back sustained a fibula injury last September.
Having signed for the Alvinegros from Ascoli in the January transfer window, Matos opened his account with his strike against Boavista last time out and we expect the 21-year-old to lead the attack once again.
Santa Clara possible starting lineup:
Pereira; Sagna, Afonso, Villanueva, Boateng; Carvalho, Morita; Crysan, Mohebi, Lincoln; Costa
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Possignolo, Pedrao, Rocha, Gomes; Fernandes, Oliveira, Angulo; Nakajima, Junior; Matos
We say: Santa Clara 2-1 Portimonense
With just two points and two places between the sides in the league standings, we expect a thrilling affair on Monday with plenty of goalmouth action. While Portimonense will put up a fight in search of their first win of the year, we are backing Santa Clara to extend their dominance in this fixture and come away with all three points.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 28.17% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
