Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 50.11%. A win for Torpedo Moskva had a probability of 25.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Torpedo Moskva win was 1-0 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.