Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Torpedo Moskva had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Torpedo Moskva win was 0-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Orenburg in this match.