Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 53.07%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 23.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.