Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 48.58%. A win for Torpedo Moskva had a probability of 26.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Torpedo Moskva win was 1-0 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.