Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rubin Kazan win with a probability of 36.6%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 35.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rubin Kazan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Rostov win was 0-1 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rubin Kazan would win this match.