Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 45.83%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 27.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Rostov win was 0-1 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lokomotiv Moscow in this match.