Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 59.85%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Baltika had a probability of 18.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Baltika win it was 0-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for CSKA Moscow in this match.