Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 62.26%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Sochi had a probability of 16.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Sochi win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.