Romania will edge closer to securing a playoff spot for World Cup 2022 if they can beat Iceland in Bucharest in their Group J encounter on Thursday.
The Wolves have won five of their last seven matches across all competitions on home soil, while the visitors will be looking to extend their unbeaten away run to three games.
Match preview
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Romania boosted their hopes of World Cup qualification after securing a slender 1-0 victory in a crucial encounter against Armenia last month.
PAOK winger Alexandru Mitrita, currently on loan from MLS outfit New York City FC, scored the only goal of the game in the 26th minute to seal all three points on home soil and their fourth victory in Group J.
That result has moved the Wolves up to second in Group J, just one point above North Macedonia and Armenia, with their final two matches against the group's bottom two nations Iceland and Liechtenstein.
Head coach Mirel Radoi will be confident of claiming maximum points from their final two fixtures, which would seal a playoff place. Romania have won three of their four encounters against Iceland, including a 2-0 victory away from home in September.
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Iceland's hopes of qualifying for their second successive World Cup are hanging by a thread, despite their comfortable 4-0 victory against Liechtenstein in their most recent match last month.
Two penalties converted by Albert Gudmundsson, in between strikes from Stefan Teitur Thordarson and Andri Gudjohnsen, helped the Strakarnir okkar secure just their second victory from eight qualifiers.
Arnar Vidarsson's men remain in fifth place in Group J, five points behind Thursday's opponents in second. Iceland require maximum points from their final two games, as well as other results to go their way, if they are to have any chance of securing a playoff spot.
Iceland head into Thursday's clash with a decent away record in 2021, winning two and drawing one of their last four matches on the road across all competitions, including a 2-2 draw in a friendly encounter against Poland in June.
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Team News
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Romanian striker Claudiu Keseru has surprisingly missed out on a place in the national team setup, and told local news outlet Stirile Pro TV that "nobody talked to me" about his omission from the squad.
Meanwhile, Mitrita is absent due to injury so Reading's George Puscas will likely lead the line and could be supported by Rangers winger Ianis Hagi and Parma's Dennis Man.
Former Tottenham Hotspur and Napoli defender Vlad Chiriches is set to partner Ionut Nedelcearu at centre-back, shielding experienced goalkeeper Florin Nita.
As for Iceland, Vidarsson is unlikely to make too many changes to his starting lineup which beat Liechtenstein in their last match.
Thirty-six-year-old defender Birkir Mar Saevarsson will be in contention to start at right-back ahead of Alfons Sampsted after serving a one-match suspension.
With Burnley's Johann Berg Gudmundsson ruled out due to injury, Gudmundsson could be handed a start on the right-wing, with Jon Dagur Thorsteinsson and Vidar Orn Kjartansson set to join him in a three-man attack.
The latter could, however, be replaced by Real Madrid's academy star Gudjohnsen, who has already scored two goals in four substitute appearances for the national team.
Romania possible starting lineup:
Nita; Ratiu, Chiriches, Nedelcearu, Bancu; Stanciu, Nedelcu, Cicaldau; Hagi, Puskas, Man
Iceland possible starting lineup:
Runarsson; Saevarsson, Ingi Bjarnason, Gretarsson, Thorarinsson; Thordarson, Bjarnason, Helgason; A. Gudmundsson, Kjartansson, Thorsteinsson
We say: Romania 2-1 Iceland
Both sides head into Thursday's encounter off the back of victories in their last qualification match; however, Romania will be the favourites to claim all three points on home soil.
Despite the absence of Mitrita and Keseru, the hosts should have enough firepower to claim a slender victory, which would end Iceland's hopes of qualifying.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 49.65%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
