Still to get the better of their Norwegian nemesis over three previous encounters this season, Roma host Europa Conference League quarter-final opponents Bodo/Glimt at Stadio Olimpico on Thursday.
The teams reconvene in the Eternal City for the second leg, having been separated by a late goal in Glimt's 2-1 win last week - their second straight home victory over the Serie A side.
Match preview
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Followed by some fiery confrontations between members of the Roma coaching staff and their opposite numbers from Norway, the first leg of this tie not only showcased the hosts' remarkable resilience but also the limitations of Jose Mourinho's side.
Leading at half-time thanks to captain Lorenzo Pellegrini, the Giallorossi were unable to maintain their advantage at Aspmyra Stadion; ultimately following up October's 6-1 humbling with a 2-1 defeat when Hugo Vetlesen notched an 89th-minute winner for the hosts.
Criticised for his actions and comments before and after the game, Mourinho has clearly developed a complex about Kjetil Knutsen's team, who also held Roma to a 2-2 group stage draw at Stadio Olimpico, and another slice of his credibility is at stake when the Norwegian champions return to Roman soil.
Defeat last Thursday, though, finally brought a nine-match unbeaten run to an end for the side that sits fifth in Serie A, and was their first since being eliminated from the Coppa Italia back in February.
Roma previously returned from the international break - before which they beat Lazio 3-0 in the Derby della Capitale - with a 1-0 win at Sampdoria, before getting the better of rock-bottom Salernitana last weekend, when Chris Smalling was the unlikely match winner in another late comeback.
There have recently been several such revivals, including at the very end of the previous round in Europe, when a 2-1 aggregate victory over Eredivisie outfit Vitesse was sealed by Tammy Abraham's 90th-minute strike.
So, despite their travails against Thursday's opponents, Mourinho's men - who have won five of their last six Serie A matches - return to continental competition with an excellent record this season, two results apart.
They actually beat Glimt to top spot in the group stage by racking up 18 goals – the most of any team in the Conference League's inaugural season - and with a first European trophy since 1961 in their sights, they will therefore remain confident of taking one step closer to May's final.
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One of two reigning domestic champions taking part in the last eight, along with Czech double-winners Slavia Prague, the improbable success story of Bodo/Glimt keeps opening new chapters by the month.
Last week's defeat of Roma in the Arctic Circle represents a fourth win from their last five European outings, and having also successfully defended the Eliteserien title, they have a precious lead to protect in the second leg of the club's first-ever European quarter-final.
After dropping into the Conference League earlier this season, Den Gule Horde went unbeaten through the group phase and their 12-point tally proved sufficient to earn the runners-up spot behind Roma.
Knutsen's men then brushed aside Celtic - winning both legs and progressing 5-1 on aggregate - before enjoying an extra-time victory over Group D winners AZ Alkmaar in the last 16.
Sunday's 2-1 win at Sandefjord - when Ulrik Saltnes, scorer of the opening goal against Roma last week, netted the winner - also ensures their latest domestic campaign continues with an unbeaten start.
Furthermore, Glimt were only denied by Roger Ibanez's late goal on their last visit to the iconic Olimpico, so will be suitably confident prior to round four of this fascinating rivalry - but equally wary of their hosts' ability to rise from the dead.
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Team News
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For Thursday's return leg, Jose Mourinho can not only call upon the Conference League's leading scorer, seven-goal striker Tammy Abraham, but also inspirational captain Lorenzo Pellegrini, who returns to the team following Serie A suspension.
Such is the abundance of his Roma squad, which is more or less fully fit, even long-term absentee Leonardo Spinazzola was back on the bench for the clash with Salernitana last weekend, and the wing-back could be fit enough to make a cameo appearance at some stage.
After being rested with a knock picked up in Norway last week, Gianluca Mancini will also be available to Mourinho, whose side should line up in their favoured 3-4-2-1 formation.
For becoming embroiled in a post-match tussle with Roma goalkeeping coach Nuno Santos, meanwhile, Bodo/Glimt coach Kjetil Knutsen is set to be absent from the touchline due to UEFA suspension.
However, he should have Ola Solbakken available to start up front, after the competition's second-top scorer - with six goals so far - missed the first leg due to illness.
Amahl Pellegrino has five Conference League strikes to his name and will hope to form part of the front three, in which Nigerian forward Victor Boniface is also pushing for a place, while last week's goalscorers Hugo Vetlesen and Ulrik Saltnes feature in midfield.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Smalling, Mancini, Ibanez; Karsdorp, Cristante, Oliveira, Zalewski; Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan; Abraham
Bodo/Glimt possible starting lineup:
Khaikin; Sampsted, Moe, Hoibraten, Wembangomo; Vetlesen, Hagen, Saltnes; Pellegrino, Espejord, Solbakken
We say: Roma 2-1 Bodo/Glimt (Roma win on penalties)
This four-part epic battle between two unlikely opponents will conclude on Italian soil, which gives the hosts a slight edge in this second leg.
Up against well-organised visitors with nothing to lose, the Giallorossi are set to come under intense pressure, but possessing sufficient firepower to score twice, they should take the tie into extra time and even penalties.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 56.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Bodo/Glimt had a probability of 18.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.65%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Bodo/Glimt win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
