Two teams in desperate need of the points after difficult starts to the season will lock horns at Estadio Municipal Jose Zorrilla on Friday night, with Real Valladolid welcoming Osasuna.
Valladolid are currently 19th in La Liga, having picked up just 10 points from their 12 matches this term, while Osasuna are just one point and one position above their opponents in the table.
Match preview
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Valladolid picked up two huge results either side of the November international break, recording a 2-1 win over Athletic Bilbao before overcoming Granada two weeks later; a point at home to Levante followed, but the strugglers suffered a 2-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid last weekend.
Despite a relatively strong recent run of results, Sergio Gonzalez's side are inside the relegation zone, having won two, drawn four and lost six of their 12 matches this term to collect 10 points.
Valladolid are actually only three points behind 13th-placed Valencia, though, and it is incredibly tight in the bottom half of the division, with even basement side Huesca just three points from the safety of 17th.
The White and Violets, who have former Brazil striker Ronaldo as a majority shareholder, finished 13th last season and would have been looking to build on that impressive position this term.
The early indications are that it could be a tough campaign for the club, though, and recent history favours Osasuna in this fixture, with Valladolid without a victory over their opponents on Friday since November 2012.
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Osasuna were excellent on their return to La Liga last season, ultimately claiming 10th spot, just four points off the Europa League positions as they picked up 52 points from 38 matches.
Los Rojillos have struggled for consistency in the early stages of 2020-21, though, and currently sit 18th in the table, having collected 11 points from their 11 matches thus far.
Jagoba Arrasate's side are actually without a win in Spain's top flight since overcoming Athletic Bilbao on October 24, losing four of their last five matches during a worrying run.
Atletico, Sevilla, Barcelona and Real Betis have all beaten Osasuna since the end of October, while the club were held to a 1-1 draw by basement side Huesca on November 20.
Each of the last three La Liga meetings between Osasuna and Valladolid have finished level, including a 1-1 draw in the corresponding match during the 2019-20 campaign.
Real Valladolid La Liga form: LLWWDL
Osasuna La Liga form: WLLDLL
Team News
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Valladolid are missing some key players at the moment, with Fabian Orellana and Sergi Guardiola both on the sidelines through injury, while Joaquin Fernandez and Kiko Olivas are also absent.
Sergio is expected to keep faith with the majority of the side that started against Atletico last weekend, although there could be a change in the final third with Shon Weissman potentially replacing Maranhao.
Toni Suarez and Saidy Janko are both options for change, but Roque Mesa and Jota should keep their spots in the side, while Oscar Plano is expected to feature in midfield.
As for Osasuna, Adrian Lopez, Lucas Torro and Chimy Avila remain on the sidelines through injury, but Jony has a chance of recovering from the problem that saw him miss out against Betis.
Arrasate is expected to shuffle his pack from the side that started last weekend, with Oier and Jonathan Calleri potentially replacing Enric Gallego and Darko Brasanac in the starting XI.
Nacho Vidal and Kike Barja came off the bench against Betis, meanwhile, and are options for change, but Ante Budimir and Ruben Garcia are likely to retain their positions in the final third of the field.
Real Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Masip; Hervias, Bruno, Sanchez, Nacho; Jota, Alcaraz, Mesa, Plano; Weissman, Maranhao
Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Roncaglia, Aridane, D Garcia, Perez; Torres, Oier, Moncayola, R Garcia; Budimir, Calleri
We say: Real Valladolid 1-1 Osasuna
There is not an awful lot between these two teams in terms of quality, and as mentioned, the pair have played out three successive draws. Valladolid are arguably the favourites due to their recent run of form and the fact that they have home advantage, but we fancy Osasuna to pick up a share of the spoils.
Top betting tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.9%) and 1-2 (7.9%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 1-0 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
