Real Valladolid travel to the Basque Country this weekend for their relegation dogfight against fellow strugglers Eibar at the Estadio Municipal de Ipurua.
With both teams currently neck-and-neck at the foot of the La Liga table, this clash could go a long way in deciding who will be playing Segunda Division football next season.
Match preview
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The importance of this game for both sides cannot be understated and both sets of players will be well aware of just how influential three points could be in their respective fights for survival.
Eibar playmaker Edu Exposito even branded this fixture as a "final" earlier this week.
With just one league win from their last 11 games, there is a good chance that a loss this weekend could have Eibar boss Jose Luis Mendilibar nervously awaiting a call from the club's hierarchy.
Speaking to the media this week, Mendilibar said: "I think we know what is happening to us and that is important, we have to try to correct it."
Ultimately, actions speak louder than words, and Eibar will have to address a lot of deficiencies if they are to come away with a win against Valladolid.
In terms of recent form, Eibar are one of the worst outfits in the division, with Celta Vigo and Elche the only clubs to perform worse over their last six league outings.
Eibar, who are 17th in the table, also have the worst home form in the league this season, with Los Armeros having only won once at the Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, collecting just seven points in total.
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It has been a difficult few weeks for Sergio's Real Valladolid side, with the team only picking up one win in their last six league games.
As a result of their poor form, Valladolid sit in 18th place, separated from Eibar by goal difference alone.
Against Alaves last time out, Sergio's men were unlucky not to come away from the tie without at least a point for their efforts. In the end, former Newcastle United poacher Joselu was the man of the hour for the hosts, bagging the winner in the 66th minute.
Following the end of the game, Sergio made his thoughts on his side's performance clear, saying Valladolid had "hit rock bottom".
Yet, they say if you hit rock bottom, the only way to go is up, and three points against Los Armeros could go a long way in defining the team's third consecutive season in Spain's top flight.
Eibar La Liga form: WLLDLL
Eibar form (all competitions): WLLDLL
Real Valladolid La Liga form: WLDDLL
Real Valladolid form (all competitions): WDDLLL
Team News
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Mendilibar will be without a few first-team regulars for this tie.
Roberto Correa and Kevin Rodrigues are both out with muscular injuries. Bryan Gil, Eibar's on-loan starlet, turned 20 this week and will be keen to mark the occasion with a goal for Los Armeros.
For Valladolid, Jawad El Yamiq and Sergi Guardiola are both unavailable due to injury.
Kiko Olivas and Marcos de Sousa were both in training for Valladolid and could be close to a return to action.
Eibar possible starting lineup:
Dmitrovic; Arbilla, Oliveira, Bigas, Rafa; Muto, Recio, Exposito, Gil; Kike, Enrich
Real Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Masip; Perez, Fernandez, Bruno, Olaza; Hervias, Mesa, Perez, Fede, Plano; Weissman
We say: Eibar 2-2 Real Valladolid
This will be a very intriguing encounter between two sides that are just as bad as each other, and neutrals are likely to have a real dogfight on their hands. We cannot see anything separating the two sides but are expecting a few fireworks.
Top betting tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 36.16%. A win for Eibar had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Eibar win was 1-0 (11.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
