Real Madrid will be looking to build on last month's 5-0 thrashing of Shakhtar Donetsk when they welcome the Ukrainian outfit to the Santiago Bernabeu for another Champions League battle on Wednesday night.
An entertaining encounter with plenty of goalmouth action is to be expected in the Spanish capital, as 23 goals have been scored in the previous five meetings between these two sides at an average of 4.6 goals per game.
Match preview
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After a disappointing goalless draw at home against Osasuna last Wednesday, Real Madrid returned to winning ways with a 2-1 victory away against Elche on Saturday.
A brace from Vinicius Junior helped Los Blancos secure all three points and move to within one point of La Liga leaders Real Sociedad, with a game in hand.
Carlo Ancelotti's side have seemingly managed to regain their consistency in recent weeks, with three victories and a draw in their last four matches across all competitions. This run includes an emphatic 5-0 thrashing of Shakhtar Donetsk in the reverse fixture on October 19.
Real Madrid will have been pleased to have beaten the Ukrainian outfit so convincingly last time out, considering they were defeated by them on both occasions in last season's Champions League group stage, which put them at risk of an embarrassing elimination at the first hurdle, something which would have been considered unthinkable for the 13-time European champions.
Another shock on Wednesday cannot be ruled out, however, following September's 2-1 defeat at home against Moldovan minnows Sheriff Tiraspol, who incredibly top Group D heading into gameweek four.
Form on home soil is something which needs to be addressed by Ancelotti, as they have failed to win each of their last three games at the Santiago Bernabeu. In addition, Los Blancos have lost three of their last eight home matches in the group stage of the Champions League, including last season's 3-2 defeat against Shakhtar.
Victory in midweek could see Real Madrid climb to the summit of Group D, if Sheriff were to drop points against Inter Milan, though qualifying for the knockout rounds is far from certain at this stage.
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Shakhtar Donetsk extended ther unbeaten league run to 10 matches when they secured a comfortable 4-1 victory at home against Densa last weekend.
First-half goals from Manor Solomon and Heorhiy Sudakov as well as second-half strikes from Tete and Fernando ensured the Hirnyky are still within touching distance of Ukrainian champions Dynamo Kiev, who sit three points clear at the summit.
While their domestic form has been unsurprisingly strong, Shakhtar's efforts in the Champions League have left a little to be desired after claiming just one point from their opening three Group D matches.
Roberto De Zerbi's men are also one of three teams in this year's competition – along with Dynamo Kiev and Malmo – who are yet to score. Their last strike in the competition was in fact away against Real Madrid last season.
Shakhtar would have gone into last month's encounter against Los Blancos with plenty of confidence after doing the double over them last season. However, the five-goal drubbing by the Spanish giants has hindered their hopes of advancing from Group D.
De Zerbi needs to somehow transfer Shakhtar's domestic form over to their Champions League campaign quickly, if they are to climb from the foot of Group D and progress into the knockout stages, a potentially dramatic comeback that seems unlikely but is not impossible.
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Team News
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Real Madrid will be without Gareth Bale (hamstring), Dani Ceballos (ankle) and Federico Valverde (knee) as they continue to recover from their respective injuries.
Karim Benzema is doubtful after missing last weekend's victory against Elche with a minor foot problem, while Rodrygo will also be assessed ahead of kickoff after limping off in the first half of the same game with a hamstring strain.
Meanwhile, Mariano Diaz is unlikely to feature after breaking his nose when landing awkwardly in the match against Elche, and has since undergone surgery.
Full-backs Dani Carvajal and Ferland Mendy will be hoping to force their way into the starting lineup ahead of Lucas Vazquez and Marcelo, who both started on Saturday.
After not starting a single game in October, Eden Hazard will likely replace Rodrygo on the right wing, while Vinicius Junior – who scored a brace in the reverse fixture against Shakhtar last month – is set to remain in the first XI on the opposite flank.
As for Shakhtar, they will be without forwards Lassina Traore and Junior Moraes as they continue to recover from knee injuries, while defender Mykola Matvienko is ruled out with a leg problem.
Attacking midfielder Pedrinho has not played for the Ukrainians since starting against Real Madrid last month and remains doubtful due to unspecified reasons.
De Zerbi is set to name a similar side to the one selected over the weekend, so the likes of Dodo, Marlon and Ismaily are expected to remain in the back four.
Twenty-year-old goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin could keep his place between the sticks ahead of 37-year-old Andriy Pyatov, while skilful wingers Tete and Solomon are expected to support central striker Fernando in attack.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Alaba, Marcelo; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Hazard, Benzema, Vinicius Jr
Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Dodo, Kyvtsov, Marlon, Ismaily; Maycon, Stepanenko, Antonio; Tete, Fernando, Solomon
We say: Real Madrid 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Real Madrid will head into Wednesday's fixture as the favourites, especially after their 5-0 victory last month, though Shakhtar have caused problems for Los Blancos before and are capable of causing another upset in the Spanish capital.
The potential absence of Benzema would be a blow for the hosts, though they should still have the quality in their squad to secure all three points on home soil.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 57.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 19.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 0-1 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
