Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montrose win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Arbroath had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montrose win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Arbroath win was 1-0 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.