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World Cup 2022 qualifying permutations: Who can still reach Qatar?

Ahead of the next round of World Cup qualifiers, Sports Mole looks at the permutations for each section and which teams could still qualify.

With the 2022 World Cup in Qatar now less than eight months away, 13 spots are still up for grabs at the biggest tournament in the sport.

While four-time winners and current European champions Italy have seen their hopes incredibly dashed for the second World Cup in a row, 33 teams could still mathematically make it to the grandest stage.

Here, Sports Mole looks at the permutations for each section ahead of a decisive week.



UEFA QUALIFIERS

Portugal's Otavio celebrates scoring against Turkey on March 24, 2022© Reuters

The European qualifiers are currently in their playoff stage, with two finals confirmed and Wales due to face either Scotland or Ukraine in the other - the latter fixture having been postponed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia have also been expelled from the qualifiers as a result, giving Poland a bye through to their playoff final against Sweden.

Italy's conquerors North Macedonia will need to claim another major scalp to secure their place in Qatar as they gear up for a playoff tie against Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal.

Teams that could still qualify: Scotland, Ukraine, Wales, Poland, Sweden, Portugal, North Macedonia



CONMEBOL QUALIFIERS

Peru's Carlos Zambrano and teammates look dejected after Uruguay's Giorgian de Arrascaeta scored their first goal on March 24, 2022© Reuters

The four automatic qualification places have now been decided in South America, leaving three teams battling it out for the one playoff spot and an intercontinental showdown with the AFC fourth round winner.

Peru are currently in pole position despite losing a crucial game against Uruguay last time out, holding a one-point lead over Colombia and a two-point advantage over Chile.

Victory for Peru over already-eliminated Paraguay would therefore guarantee their place in Qatar, but any dropped points would open the door for Colombia, who face Venezuela, and Chile, who take on Uruguay.

Victory for Colombia combined with Peru failing to win would see them qualify for the playoff, while Peru would need to beat Uruguay and hope that both Colombia and Peru fail to win in order to steal into fifth place.

Teams that could still qualify: Peru, Colombia, Chile



AFC QUALIFIERS

United Arab Emirates' Yahya Al Ghassani celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on January 27, 2022© Reuters

The two automatic qualification places in Group A have been decided for some time, with Iran and South Korea claiming those spots, but behind them there is a three-way battle for one playoff berth.

United Arab Emirates - with nine points from nine games - currently occupy third, one point above Iraq and three ahead of Lebanon, meaning that matters are still in their hands.

However, UAE face a difficult game against South Korea to complete the qualifying campaign, whereas Iraq take on already-eliminated Syria knowing that a win, coupled with any dropped points for UAE, would be enough to finish third themselves.

Lebanon, meanwhile, would need a shock win away to Iran, Iraq to drop points in Syria and for UAE to lose against South Korea - plus a five-goal swing in goal difference with UAE - to pull off an unlikely third-placed finish.

Whoever does finish third will take on Australia in the AFC fourth round, with Group B having already been decided as far as the top three is concerned.

Teams that could still qualify: United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Lebanon, Australia



CAF QUALIFIERS

Egypt players celebrate after Senegal's Saliou Ciss scores an own goal on March 25, 2022© Reuters

The African qualifiers will all come down to Tuesday's five playoff second legs, but some of the continent's biggest names are guaranteed to miss out - including one of the Africa Cup of Nations finalists.

Egypt beat Senegal 1-0 in the first leg of their playoff to give themselves the slight edge at the halfway stage of the tie, while Algeria beat Cameroon by the same scoreline in their first leg.

Tunisia also hold a 1-0 advantage over Mali, while Congo DR and Morocco played out a 1-1 draw and Ghana's first leg with Nigeria ended goalless.

Teams that could still qualify: Egypt, Senegal, Algeria, Cameroon, Tunisia, Mali, Ghana, Nigeria, DR Congo, Morocco



CONCACAF QUALIFIERS

Canada's Cyle Larin celebrates scoring their first goal on January 30, 2022© Reuters

A place at a first World Cup since 1986 is within reach for Canada, who missed the chance to wrap it up earlier this week when they lost to Costa Rica but would do so if they simply avoid defeat to Jamaica in Toronto.

There are two matches left in this section and Canada hold a six-point lead over Costa Rica in the playoff spot, which is the lowest they can now finish.

Even defeat would be enough if Costa Rica fail to beat El Salvador, although Canada's goal difference is superior enough for them to count themselves as all but qualified already.

Behind Canada, four teams are separated by just four points with two games remaining, although USA and Mexico are in the driving seat for the two remaining automatic spots as they hold a three-point advantage over fourth.

Wins for USA against Panama and Mexico against Honduras, coupled with dropped points for Costa Rica against El Salvador, would therefore seal their places in Qatar with a game to spare, while even draws for either could be enough if Costa Rica lose to El Salvador.

Mathematically, Costa Rica must simply match the results of either USA or Mexico in order to remain in contention for an automatic berth, although their inferior goal difference means that even that may not be enough to realistically keep them in the mix.

Panama are currently fifth and would therefore need to better Costa Rica's result in order to leapfrog them ahead of the final match.

Teams that could still qualify: Canada, USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama



OFC QUALIFIERS

There are four teams left in the OFC qualifying section, with the winners only guaranteed a place in an intercontinental playoff against fourth place in CONCACAF rather than a World Cup spot.

Three of the teams in those OFC semi-finals have never appeared at a World Cup before, with New Zealand the only team still in contention that has.

The All Whites will take on Tahiti in their semi-final, while Solomon Islands face Papua New Guinea.

Teams that could still qualify: Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, Tahiti


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Canada's Cyle Larin celebrates scoring their first goal on January 30, 2022
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