Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Rayyan win with a probability of 58.14%. A win for Al Ahli had a probability of 22% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Rayyan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.04%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Al Ahli win was 1-2 (5.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Rayyan would win this match.