Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Puerto Rico win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Aruba had a probability of 18.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Puerto Rico win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.84%) and 3-1 (7.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%), while for an Aruba win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Puerto Rico would win this match.