Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 20

Jan 26, 2021 at 8.15pm UK

St Mary's Stadium

Southampton
1 - 3
Arsenal

Armstrong (3')
Watts (90')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Pepe (8'), Saka (39'), Lacazette (72')
Bellerin (19'), Pepe (70')

Reaction

Arsenal's Bukayo Saka pictured on January 2, 2021

Mikel Arteta: 'Bukayo Saka can be Arsenal's leader'

The 19-year-old scored his fifth Premier League goal of the season in the win over Southampton.

Jan 27, 12:31

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Arsenal
28.65%	26.78%	44.57%

Both teams to score 49.33%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.66%

55.34%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.45%

76.55%

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.51%

34.49%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.8%

71.2%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.3%

24.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.75%

59.25%

Score Analysis

Southampton 28.65%

Arsenal 44.57%

Draw 26.78%

Southampton	Draw	Arsenal
1-0 @ 9.07% 2-1 @ 6.75% 2-0 @ 4.83% 3-1 @ 2.4% 3-0 @ 1.71% 3-2 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.22% Total : 28.65%	1-1 @ 12.68% 0-0 @ 8.52% 2-2 @ 4.72% Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.78%	0-1 @ 11.91% 1-2 @ 8.87% 0-2 @ 8.33% 1-3 @ 4.13% 0-3 @ 3.88% 2-3 @ 2.2% 1-4 @ 1.44% 0-4 @ 1.36% Other @ 2.45% Total : 44.57%