Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 54.3%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 23.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.