Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 29

Mar 16, 2025 at 1.30pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
1 - 0
Chelsea

Merino (20')
Magalhaes (54'), Partey (58'), Odegaard (65')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Colwill (30'), Neto (52'), Fofana (59')

Reaction

Charles Watts/Mikel Arteta composite image

Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea: Mikel Arteta sent firm Premier League title message as Liverpool struggles, Big Six record assessed

Arsenal have no hope of clawing back their 12-point Premier League deficit to Liverpool despite the Reds' recent problems, Gunners expert Charles Watts believes.

Mar 18, 13:57

Chelsea's Wesley Fofana on March 16, 2025

Wesley Fofana: Chelsea "appalled and disgusted" by racist abuse aimed at defender who calls for "things to change"

Chelsea condemn the "abhorrent" racist abuse directed at defender Wesley Fofana following Sunday's 1-0 defeat at Arsenal in the Premier League.

Mar 18, 09:38

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta at a press conference on February 20, 2024

Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea: Watch Mikel Arteta fake dash out of interview after Bukayo Saka question

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta fake runs out of his post-match interview following the Gunners' 1-0 victory over Chelsea in the Premier League.

Mar 16, 16:52

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca in August 2024.

Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea: Enzo Maresca comments on ineffective attacking display, Cole Palmer injury blow

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca acknowledges that his side need to find an extra gear against teams competing at the top of the Premier League.

Mar 16, 16:22

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Arsenal

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Arsenal 2-2 PSV
Wednesday, March 12 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Chelsea

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Chelsea 1-0 Copenhagen
Thursday, March 13 at 8pm in Conference League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 60.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 19.02%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.97%) and 1-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a Chelsea win it was 1-2 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arsenal in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Arsenal.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Chelsea
60.53% ( 0.05)	20.45% ( 0)	19.02% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 58.68% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.29% (

-0.08)

37.71% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.05% (

-0.09)

59.95% (

0.09)

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.9% (

-0.01)

12.1% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.35% (

-0.03)

37.65% (

0.03)

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.76% (

-0.09)

33.24% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.15% (

-0.11)

69.85% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Arsenal 60.53%

Chelsea 19.02%

Draw 20.45%

Arsenal	Draw	Chelsea
2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.67% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.55% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.41% ( 0) Other @ 4.09% Total : 60.53%	1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.22% Total : 20.45%	1-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.44% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.11% Total : 19.02%