Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 50.46%. A win for Newcastle United Under-21s had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.18%) and 3-2 (5.4%). The likeliest Newcastle United Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-21s would win this match.