Having dropped to an unfamiliar second position in World Cup 2022 Qualifying Group A, Portugal seek to reclaim top spot as they play host to Luxembourg on Tuesday.
Fernando Santos's side eased to a 3-0 friendly win over Qatar at the weekend, while their upcoming opponents suffered a 1-0 defeat to group leaders Serbia.
Match preview
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One month after easing past World Cup 2022 hosts Qatar 3-1 in a friendly battle, Portugal once again chalked up a trio of goals when the Middle Eastern nation paid a visit to the Estadio Algarve with a straightforward 3-0 success.
While their rivals were busy staking their claims for spots at next year's tournament, Portugal saw Cristiano Ronaldo, Jose Fonte and Andre Silva find the back of the net against Qatar during an ideal warm-up for their return to World Cup Qualifying action.
With 13 points taken from a possible 15 so far, Portugal occupy second spot in Group A - one point behind Serbia, who have played a game more - so Santos's side can ill-afford any more slip-ups before they round off their qualification campaign against the group leaders next month.
September's victories over Qatar, Azerbaijan and the Republic of Ireland mean that the Euro 2016 winners enter Tuesday's game on the back of four successive victories across all competitions, and they have not suffered defeat in World Cup Qualifying since going down 2-0 to Switzerland in September 2016.
Since then, Portugal have gleaned 13 victories from 14 during their bids to make the Finals tournament, and their winning streak at home during this phase now stands at nine matches before Luxembourg seek to pull off an improbable win.
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Luxembourg were the latest team to be on the end of a Dusan Vlahovic winner, with the in-demand Fiorentina forward winning the day for Serbia with a 68th-minute strike to condemn Luc Holtz's side to a 1-0 defeat in Saturday's Qualifying battle.
While that scoreline was an improvement on the 4-1 thrashing that Serbia inflicted on them just over a month ago, Luxembourg's fleeting hopes of a spot in the second round are hanging by the thinnest of threads and will be dashed with a less-than-favourable result this week.
Holtz's side currently occupy third place in the five-team group with six points taken so far, meaning that there is the slimmest chance of them usurping Portugal to second place, but their World Cup dreams are expected to end for another year this week.
Luxembourg have got the better of the two eliminated sides in Azerbaijan and Ireland in Group A, but competing with the big boys in Serbia and Portugal has proven to be a step too far for the side who have won a total of five games away from home since 2009.
This week's visitors did open the scoring against Portugal during their first encounter of the group but ultimately lost 3-1, and that result marked their 11th defeat in succession against their Iberian counterparts, who have not lost this fixture in 60 years.
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Team News
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Portugal attacker Francisco Trincao was forced to withdraw from this month's fixtures after contracting coronavirus, while Rafa Silva, Domingos Duarte and Raphael Guerreiro will play no part due to injuries and Diogo Jota is uncertain with a muscular problem.
Ronaldo was suspended for his side's last World Cup Qualifying clash with Azerbaijan and was granted early leave to link up with his Manchester United teammates, but the 112-goal captain is primed to lead the line here.
After handing fringe players the chance to impress in the Qatar friendly, Santos should reintroduce the likes of Pepe, Ruben Dias, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva to the first XI this week.
Meanwhile, Luxembourg duo Christopher Martins and Gerson Rodrigues - the latter of whom opened the scoring against Portugal during March's defeat - are both back in the fold after serving suspensions last time out.
Both players are strong candidates to earn immediate recalls to the side here, with Rodrigues in line to replace 17-year-old Yvandro Borges Sanches while Martins could return over Olivier Thill.
Huddersfield Town's Danel Sinani was chosen to lead the line over Edvin Muratovic against Serbia and will hope to hold his place in the final third for this crunch clash.
Portugal possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Cancelo, Pepe, Dias, Mendes; Moutinho, Palhinha, Fernandes; B. Silva, Ronaldo, Leao
Luxembourg possible starting lineup:
Moris; Jans, Chanot, Carlson, Pinto; Martins Pereira; Deville, S. Thill, Barreiro, Rodriguez; Sinani
We say: Portugal 3-0 Luxembourg
Luxembourg are not the easiest side in the world to break down, and the returns of Martins Pereira and Rodrigues will both be welcomed with open arms ahead of this fixture.
However, Portugal's big-hitters are well-rested and will have no intention of letting their side's remarkable home streak in World Cup Qualifying end, so we can only back Santos's sice to prevail comfortably.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 69.25%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 9.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.85%) and 3-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.33%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
