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Porto
Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals
Mar 3, 2021 at 8.15pm UK
Estádio do Dragão
Braga

Porto
2 - 3
Braga

Otavio (30'), Marega (75')
Otavio (84')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Ruiz (9', 14'), Piazon (28')
Esgaio (43'), Piazon (77'), Magalhaes (80')
Borja (34')

Preview: Porto vs. Braga - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Taca de Portugal clash between Porto and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aiming to reach their third consecutive Taca de Portugal final, Porto welcome Braga to the Estadio do Dragao on Wednesday.

Braga have not appeared in the final of this tournament since 2016 when they beat Porto on penalties to win their second-ever title.


Match preview

Porto head coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on February 17, 2021© Reuters

Porto were involved in a share of the spoils for the third league game running as they held Sporting Lisbon to a goalless draw on Saturday.

Sergio Conceicao's men had an opportunity to close the 10-point gap between themselves and the league leaders, but they were unable to do so.

They head into their semi-final second leg off the back of a 1-1 draw in the first leg at the Estadio Municipal de Braga three weeks ago.

Azuis e Brancos took the lead in the ninth minute through Mehdi Taremi, before that advantage was wiped out in the 12th minute of added time when Fransergio stuck to even the contest.

The tie remains firmly in the balance, and the home team will look to take an important step towards success in what is perhaps their best shot at silverware this season.

Braga head coach Carlos Carvalhal pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Braga were the biggest beneficiaries of Porto's weekend result as they moved above the latter into second place on the log courtesy of a 2-1 win over Nacional on Sunday.

Carlos Carvalhal's men bounced back from a 3-1 loss to Roma in the Europa League three days earlier which signalled the end of their journey.

Back home, Os Arcebispos are nine points behind Sporting Lisbon in the race for the title and with 13 games left to play, they have an outside chance of being crowned champions.

In the meantime, securing a place in May's showdown is the target, but they have lost four of their last five games away at Wednesday's hosts.

Porto Taca de Portugal form: WWWW
Porto form (all competitions): DDDWWD

Braga Taca de Portugal form: WWWW
Braga form (all competitions): DWLWLW


Team News

Braga's Francisco Moura celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates in November 2020© Reuters

Luis Diaz and Mateus Uribe were both sent off in the first leg, but they are eligible to feature once again after serving their suspensions.

After almost a year out with a knee problem, Ivan Marcano returned to action on Saturday albeit with the reserve team as he works his way back to full fitness.

Mouhamed Mbaye has not featured for the home team since last July when he ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament a few minutes after coming on as a substitute.

Like Mbaye, Braga's Francisco Moura and Rui Fonte have also suffered ACL injuries, and they will not play any part in the game.

David Carmo is the away side's only other absentee after he hobbled off with an ankle injury in the most recent meeting between the teams.

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Sanusi, Pepe, Mbemba, Manafa; Uribe, Vieira, Otavio; Diaz, Marega, Corona

Braga possible starting lineup:
Magalhaes; Esgaio, Rodrigues, Tormena, Borja; Galeno, Fransergio, Musrati, Horta; Ruiz, Piazon


SM words green background

We say: Porto 2-1 Braga

The two teams are renowned for being deadly in attack which should make for a game full of goals. However, we expect Porto to narrowly edge out their opponents, and secure a place in the final.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.21%. A win for Braga had a probability of 24.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.


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