The Europa League returns on Wednesday night with Porto welcoming Lyon to the Estadio do Dragao for the first leg of their last-16 encounter.
The Dragons head into this contest off the back of a 4-2 Primeira Liga victory against Pacos de Ferreira on Sunday, while Les Gones also netted four times in their last match, winning by a 4-1 scoreline last Friday against Ligue 1 side Lorient.
Match preview
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While Porto have been a dominant force domestically this season – currently undefeated in the Primeira Liga and sitting six points clear at the summit – Sergio Conceicao's men failed to advance from their Champions League group and subsequently dropped down into the Europa League playoffs.
The Dragons were then faced with a challenging tie against Serie A outfit Lazio last month, but they managed to win 4-3 on aggregate, with Toni Martinez (2), Mehdi Taremi and Mateus Uribe all on the scoresheet across the two legs.
Since their elimination from the Champions League group stage was confirmed on December 7, Porto have put together an impressive 18-game unbeaten run across all competitions, including 15 victories and at least two or more goals scored on 14 occasions.
Conceicao's side head into Wednesday's clash with Lyon having won the first leg of five of their seven Europa League matches in the knockout rounds on home soil, with their only defeat in this run against Manchester City back in 2011-12.
Porto's last meeting with Lyon was in the quarter-finals of the 2003-04 Champions League, with the Portuguese giants winning 4-2 on aggregate before going all the way to lift the trophy under the tutelage of Jose Mourinho.
Spirits will understandably be high among the Porto camp, but they cannot underestimate their midweek opponents, who have excelled in this season's Europa League.
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Unlike Porto, Lyon have endured an underwhelming domestic campaign, with Peter Bosz's men currently sitting ninth in Ligue 1 and 19 points behind league leaders Paris Saint-Germain.
However, their efforts in the Europa League have been the highlight of their campaign so far; Les Gones finished top of Group A ahead of Rangers, Sparta Prague and Brondby, with five victories and a draw from their six matches – no team accumulated more points (16) or scored more goals (also 16) than the French side during the group stage.
Lyon now prepare for a challenging two-legged contest against a Porto side, who they have failed to win against in any of their previous four meetings, including defeats in both of their away matches.
Another concerning statistic for Les Gones is that Porto have won each of their last six games against French opposition, and have not lost in 11 home games against Ligue 1 clubs since a 2-0 defeat to Nantes back in September 1971.
However, Lyon boss Bosz has experience of beating the Portuguese giants during his time with Bayer Leverkusen; Under the Dutchman's tenure, the Bundesliga outfit defeated the Dragons 5-2 on aggregate in the 2019-20 Europa League round of 32.
Lyon have also won all three of their away games in the Europa League this season, scoring nine goals in the process, so they will be confident of securing a positive result on Wednesday to take into the second leg.
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Team News
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Porto's only injury concern is with right-back Wilson Manafa, who continues to recover from a knee problem, while left-back Wendell – who was sent off in their final Champions League group fixture – will serve the third and final game of his suspension.
Joao Mario is set to continue at right-back in Manafa's absence, joining 39-year-old Pepe, Chancel Mbemba and Zaidu Sanusi in the back four.
Galeno, who scored all six of his Europa League goals with Braga this term prior to joining Porto in January, could start on the left side of midfield, with Otavio operating on the right and Mateus Uribe partnering Vitinha in centre-midfield.
Evanilson, Taremi and Martinez will be competing to start in the front two, though the latter is the most likely to begin on the substitutes' bench.
As for Lyon, Rayan Cherki and Sinaly Diomande are both sidelined with respective foot and ankle injuries, while Tanguy Ndombele, Jason Denayer and Leo Dubois – who were all absent last Friday – are doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Centre-back Jerome Boateng and midfielder Jeff Reine-Adelaide both returned from injury against Lorient and came on as substitutes – the latter making his first appearance in 13 months after recovering from an ACL injury – and the pair will now be in contention to start on Thursday.
Karl Toko Ekambi – who is the joint-top goalscorer in this season's Europa League, along with Porto's Galeno with six strikes – is set to start on the left side of a front three, with Romain Faivre to begin on the right and Moussa Dembele expected to lead the line as the central striker.
Porto possible starting lineup:
D. Costa; Mario, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Otavio, Vitinha, Uribe, Galeno; Evanilson, Taremi
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Gusto, Boateng, Lukeba, Emerson; Caqueret, Aouar; Faivre, Paqueta, Toko Ekambi; Dembele
We say: Porto 2-2 Lyon
Lyon have had two extra days preparation for Wednesday's first leg, but we expect a closely-fought contest to be played out between two of the favourites to go all the way in this year's competition.
The two teams have an eye for goal and we can see the net rippling at both ends of the pitch, but will little to separate them, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards in Portugal.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 58.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Lyon had a probability of 17.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.49%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Lyon win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
