Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Katowice had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.67%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Katowice win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.