The road to Qatar will officially end for Panama on Wednesday as they host Canada at Estadio Rommel Fernandez in their final fixture of World Cup 2022 qualifying.
Los Canaleros were eliminated from World Cup contention when they fell 5-1 to the USA this past weekend, while the Canadians will be heading to the finals for the first time since 1986 following an impressive 4-0 win over Jamaica.
Match preview
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Panama picked the most inopportune time to have a poor outing as they were outclassed by the Americans on Sunday, suffering their worst defeat since being thumped 6-1 by England at the 2018 World Cup.
Their defeat last weekend means that the Panamanians will not be returning to football's showcase event, which must be a bitter pill to swallow for this team, who were positioned to claim a playoff berth heading into the final qualifying window.
Before Thomas Christiansen and his team can ponder where it all went wrong, his players still have a chance to salvage some pride, taking on a Canadian side who have never beaten them on their home soil.
You have to go back to November 2019 for the last time they lost a match in Panama, when Los Canaleros were dispatched 3-0 by Mexico.
Throughout this qualifying campaign, Panama have played aggressively, not afraid to throw in a few bone-crunching challenges, although against the Americans, they were on the receiving end of a lot of those tackles, as they were fouled 23 times.
Playing consistently sharp and maintaining a solid structure for 90 minutes was a rarity for them in the Octagon, as they failed to make enough in-game adjustments when things were not going their way.
In this qualification cycle, La Marea Roja squandered seven points from winning positions, including a 1-0 lead against The Canucks last October in a match that they ended up losing 4-1.
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The party is on for Canada, as this team wiped away 36 years of frustration on Sunday to claim their second-ever berth in a FIFA World Cup.
Les Rouges needed only a point last weekend to clinch a spot in Qatar, and John Herdman got the response that he was looking for, as it was one-way traffic in the Jamaican end of the field for most of that contest.
Since their previous appearance at the World Cup, 285 different players have dawned the red and white of Canada, and at long last, the right crop of players have come through.
Losing a quality contributor like Alphonso Davies would cripple a lot of squads, but for the Canucks, his injury has been like a rallying cry to unite together as one, winning four of their last five games without the Bayern Munich superstar.
Although their place in Qatar is now assured, finishing on top of the Octagon standings, could increase their odds of a generous draw on April 1.
The Canadians have been exceptional when leading, winning all seven matches in this round of qualifying when scoring first and without a defeat after drawing first blood since losing 3-2 to Haiti at the 2019 Gold Cup.
The Canucks lead all CONCACAF sides in qualifying with 23 strikes, however, finding the back of the net in Panama has not been so easy, as Canada have failed to score in six of their seven visits to the small Central American nation.
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Team News
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Anibal Godoy scored his fourth goal in Panama colours on Sunday, though it was far too little and far too late, while Alberto Quintero is now third in all-time appearances for Los Canaleros, picking up his 122nd cap in their previous encounter to draw even with Armando Cooper and Blas Perez.
Rolando Blackburn scored the opening goal in their previous meeting with Canada last October off a nice centring pass from Michael Murillo, who repaid the favour to the Canadians with an own-goal a little later.
Christiansen inserted two new faces into the starting 11 against the US over the weekend, as Eric Davis replaced Jorge Gutierrez in defence, and Freddy Gondola started in the midfield instead of Jose Luis Rodriguez.
Canadian record goalscorer Cyle Larin has a chance to make history on Wednesday, as his 13 goals in qualifying is the third-most from one player in a single CONCACAF qualification campaign, behind former Mexican striker Jared Borgetti in the 2006 campaign (14) and Carlos Pavon, who tallied 15 times for Honduras in their 2002 qualification cycle.
Tajon Buchanan had a monster game for Canada on Sunday, scoring a goal and picking up an assist, winning 13 duels as well, while the heartbeat of the Canadian midfield, Stephen Eustaquio, set up Larin's match-winner.
Junior Hoilett scored his 14th goal for Canada in the victory, and he can move into a tie with Ali Gerba for eighth on that all-time list if he can find the back of the net on Wednesday.
Goalkeeper Milan Borjan can move past former Canadian internationals Nick Dasovic and Kevin McKenna in appearance for Les Rouges, as the Red Star Belgrade man is tied for ninth in that department with 63 caps.
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Davis, Cordoba, Escobar, Cummings; Godoy, Medina; Gondola, Yanis, Barcenas; Waterman
Canada possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Miller, Henry, Vitoria, Adekugbe; Hutchinson, Kone; Eustaquio, Fraser; Ugbo, Millar
We say: Panama 0-0 Canada
Goals are at a premium when these sides face off in Panama, with six of those meetings ending in a 0-0 draw.
Even though the Canadians can improve their chances of a good World Cup draw with a victory, the most important thing for this group heading to Qatar is to stay healthy, so we expect a conservative match from both teams, who have little to play for.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (11.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Panama in this match.
