Copa Libertadores holders Palmeiras host Peruvian outfit Universitario in their final group-stage encounter on Thursday.
The Brazilian hosts have already qualified for the last 16 as Group A winners, while the visitors can only finish as high as third, which would see them progress into the Copa Sudamericana.
Match preview
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Prior to losing 2-0 against Sao Paulo across a two-legged tie in the Campeonato Paulista final last weekend, Palmeiras also lost their first game of this year's Copa Libertadores, with Defensa y Justicia winning a thrilling 4-3 encounter last Tuesday.
A lively first-half showing saw both sides head into the break level with the score at 2-2 and the second half proved just as enthralling.
Gustavo Scarpa cancelled out Matias Rodriguez's 52nd-minute effort to make it 3-3, before a 94th-minute winning header from Defensa forward Braian Romero sealed a dramatic win for the visitors.
That defeat was the Brazilian side's first at home in the competition since 2016. They have had an amazing record on home soil in recent years in the Copa Libertadores, outscoring visiting teams by an aggregate of 50-10 since that loss five years ago.
Palmeiras are usually a strong side defensively, but after last week's result – which saw them concede more goals in one game than in the previous four group matches combined – head coach Abel Ferreira will be keen to address those issues quickly before they head into the last 16.
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Universitario have already been eliminated from this year's Copa Libertadores, but they managed to claim their first victory in Group A, beating Independiente del Valle 3-2 last week.
Despite the Ecuadorians dominating the match with 64% possession and 17 shots on goal, a diving header from defender Nelinho Quina in the 71st minute proved to be the winner for the hosts, extending their unbeaten run in all competitions to six games.
The 26-time Peruvian Primeira Division champions have given themselves a chance of qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana heading into the final group match.
One of Universitario or Independiente del Valle will claim third place, but Angel Comizzo's side will need to better the Ecuadorian outfit's result against Defensa y Justicia.
If both sides were to win then Universitario will need to claim victory by a five-goal margin if they are to progress on goal difference.
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Team News
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Palmeiras centre-back Vanderlan, who was shown two yellow cards last week, will miss the game due to suspension.
Winger Breno Lopes has been ruled out for the last month with a stretched ligament, and is unlikely to feature in the coming weeks.
If Ferreira decides to rotate his squad for the final group game, then he may give strikers Rony and Luiz Adriano starts ahead of Wesley and Willian, who both played against Defensa.
As for Universitario, they are still without several first-team players due to injury, including Brayan Velarde, Anthony Osorio, Ivan Santillan and Jorge Murrugarra.
Aamet Calderon is also ruled out with an Achilles tendon rupture, while Alexander Succar is still recovering from the Achilles tendon surgery he had in March.
In addition, right-back Diego Chavez is unavailable for selection as he is self-isolating after contracting coronavirus.
Comizzo could name the same starting lineup that beat Independiente del Valle, which would see Alex Sandoval – who scored a brace last week – start up front alongside Alberto Quintero.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Renan, Gomez, Mayke; Lima, Danilo, Melo, Vina; Scarpa; Rony, Adriano
Universitario possible starting lineup:
Carvallo; Corzo, Moran, Alonso, Quina, Valverde; Barreto, Alfageme, Guarderas; Quintero, Sandoval
We say: Palmeiras 2-1 Universitario
The reverse fixture between the two teams saw Palmeiras win an entertaining encounter 3-2 last month.
Thursday's hosts are set to be tested once again, as Universitario are looking to win and finish third in Group A.
However, we feel that the two-time Copa Libertadores winners will bounce back from last week's defeat to claim all three points in Sao Paulo.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 63.03%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Universitario had a probability of 13.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.58%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Universitario win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
