One of the most intense rivalries in Brazilian football will be renewed on Wednesday when Sao Paulo make the short trip from Morumbi to Perdizes to face Palmeiras from Allianz Parque in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
Palestra dropped to third as they let a one-goal lead slip away, losing 2-1 to Fluminense, while Tricolor Paulista are only two points above the relegation line following a 4-0 defeat at home to Flamengo.
Match preview
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Choque-Rei, which translates in English to the Kings' Clash, is considered the third-oldest derby in Brazil, and on Wednesday, these two bitter foes play each other in another significantly important match for both teams.
The title aspirations of Palmeiras took a hit over the weekend as Abel Ferreira saw his side's seven-match unbeaten run come to an end, losing to Flu for the first time since 2019.
Usually, when Verdao go into half time ahead, it is curtains for the opposition, but on Sunday, they allowed two goals in the final 45 minutes, the first time they had conceded in the second half since a 2-1 win over Ceara in October.
This will be the seventh meeting between these two sides this year in all competitions, with Sao Paulo winning the Campeonato Paulista against them to begin the year, but Palmeiras repaid the favour by knocking the three-time Copa Libertadores champions out of that competition, with a 3-0 win in the second leg of their quarter-final tie in August.
At the moment, Palmeiras trail Atletico Mineiro by 10 points in the title race but have played one more game, so getting their hands on that domestic trophy will take some doing.
With six games remaining for them in the Brasileiro Serie A, they have already matched their total for points from a season ago, and should they win their remaining league games, it would eclipse their total from 2019 when they came in third with 74 points.
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A season that has been full of disappointment from the beginning hit another low point this weekend for Sao Paulo, who were hammered by the defending league champions, conceding twice with less than five minutes gone.
Not only was that match easily the worst performance from this team since Rogerio Ceni returned as manager, but it was their most lopsided defeat of the year since falling 5-1 in late July to that same Mengao side.
With two defeats in their previous three fixtures, they find themselves in real danger of dropping back down into Serie B, a place that they have not been since 1979.
They have played one more game than Juventude, so their cushion above the relegation line is extremely precarious.
Coming into this contest, Sao Paulo are winless in their previous six Serie A matches played away from home, though they did pick up a 2-0 win in this exact fixture against Palestra a year ago.
Their fate in the top flight of Brazilian football could come down to three games in between the end of November and the beginning of December when they face Sport Recife, Gremio and Juventude, three of the four teams who are trying to catch Sao Paulo at the moment to remain in Serie A.
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Team News
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Dudu got Verdao off to the start that they wanted on Sunday, scoring his second of the year, but he ended the half with a yellow card and was dismissed in injury time in the second half with his team down a goal, so he will be out of this fixture on Wednesday, and so will Felipe Melo, who received a caution in that match.
Raphael Veiga got the winner in the last meeting versus Sao Paulo back in August as they won that second leg match 3-0 to advance to the next stage of the Copa Libertadores, and he leads the team in goals this season with 10, three more than Breno Lopes and putting him into a tie with Bruno Henrique and Gabriel Barbosa of Flamengo.
Gustavo Scarpa leads the league in assists with 13, which is eight more than he had a year ago when he was second on the team to Gabriel Menino, who had six assists in 2020.
Sao Paulo became unglued early against Flamengo, and as a result, frustration got the best of them, and Jonathan Calleri paid the price, getting sent off after 10 minutes, meaning that he will miss this upcoming match.
In their previous league fixture with Palestra, goalkeeper Tiago Volpi stopped all three shots that he faced to collect a clean sheet and heading into this game, he has 11 in this campaign, which equals Joao Paulo and Cleiton.
Tricolor Paulista went with a 4-3-1-2 over the weekend rather than a 3-1-4-2 as Diego Costa, Marquinhos, Gabriel Neves, Liziero and Emiliano Rigoni replaced Bruno Alves, Rodrigo Nestor, Gabriel Sara, Igor Vinicius and Luciano in the starting 11.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Luis, Luan, Renan, Menino; Ze Rafael, De Paula; Wesley, Veiga, Scarpa; Rony
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Shaylon, Miranda, Alves, Vinicius; Marquinhos, Bueno, Liziero; Gomes; Luciano, Rigoni
We say: Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo
Palmeiras are playing their arch-rivals at a particularly vulnerable time for Sao Paulo, who were not feeling very confident heading into last weekend and could be even more shaken after getting thumped by Flamengo.
Despite losing for the first time since early October, Palestra are still a side who should be feeling pretty confident about themselves, especially at home where they have won three straight games.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 52.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 23.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (6.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
