Defending champions Palmeiras continue their defence of the Copa Libertadores against Ecuadorian outfit Independiente del Valle on Tuesday.
The visitors reached the final of the competition in 2016, narrowly losing to Atletico Nacional, with both sides favourites to emerge from Group A.
Match preview
© Reuters
Two-time winners Palmeiras began their title defence in impressive fashion last week, winning 3-2 at Peruvian runners-up Universitario despite being reduced to ten men with almost half an hour of normal time remaining.
The Brazilians raced into a two-goal lead via strikes from Danilo and Raphael Veiga either side of half time, but Alan Empereur's 64th-minute dismissal left his side in a sticky situation.
Enzo Gutierrez's quickfire brace levelled proceedings before Renan sunk the Peruvian side's hearts with a dramatic 95th-minute winner.
Abel Ferreira, who became only the second non-South American manager to win the Copa Libertadores last year, will be demanding a more controlled performance from his side as they look to seal qualification to the knockout stages as quickly as possible.
© Reuters
Independiente del Valle, meanwhile, began their campaign with a 1-1 home draw against Argentinian outfit Defensa y Justicia.
Carlos Rotondi's seventh-minute opener for the visitors woke Independiente into life, with the Ecuadorian side equalising via Christian Ortiz's strike just over 20 minutes later.
The hosts pushed for a winner, having 79% possession and 27 shots across the 90 minutes, but could not beat an inspired Ezequiel Unsain in the opposition's goal.
Renato Paiva will be aware that the trip to Palmeiras represents his side's hardest proposition in Group A, so would likely be content with avoiding defeat once again.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Palmeiras will welcome Matias Vina back from suspension, but Empereur will be unavailable after his dismissal against Universitario.
Natural left-back Lucas Esteves could slot into the left side of Palmeiras' back three, with former Brazil international Luiz Adriano leading the line once again.
Ferreira is unlikely to have Breno Lopes, Gabriel Veron or Lucas Lima to choose from, with the trio still struggling with injury after missing last week's win.
Independiente, meanwhile, are likely to remain unchanged from the XI which performed well despite ultimately falling short of victory against Defensa y Justicia.
Paiva will be hoping for a more clinical showing from his side, with Ortiz hoping to get on the scoresheet once again.
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Luan, Gomez, Esteves; Rocha, Danilo, De Paula, Luis; Veiga, Rony; Adriano
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Scunke, Tenorio, Segovia; Cheme, Realpe, Pellerano, Guerrero; Faravelli; Montenegro, Ortiz
We say: Palmeiras 2-1 Independiente del Valle
We expect the hosts to edge a potentially tight encounter on Tuesday, with the defending champions hoping for back-to-back wins to move closer to the knockout stages.
Should Ferreira's side improve their discipline, they have the extra quality to get over the line.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 22.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
