Round 32 of the Portuguese Primeira Liga comes to an end on Monday when Pacos de Ferreira and Tondela lock horns at the Capital do Movel Municipal Stadium.
The CDT Auriverdes, who could move out of the drop zone with all three points, will be desperate to get one over the hosts having lost each of the last five meetings between the sides since 2018.
Match preview
© Reuters
Pacos de Ferreira continue to struggle for form on the road in the Primeira Liga as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Gil Vicente when the sides squared off last Saturday.
Following a drab first half at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Vitorino Antunes opened the scoring with his 52nd-minute penalty before substitute Fran Navarro struck in the 73rd minute to force a share of the spoils.
The Pacenses have now picked up just one point from their last three away games, suffering defeats at Sporting Lisbon and Vitoria de Guimaraes in that time, while conceding seven goals and scoring just once.
However, Pacos de Ferreira will be more than happy as they return home, where they are on a two-game winning streak and are unbeaten in six of their most recent seven games.
With 37 points from 21 games, Cesar Peixoto's side are currently eighth in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with seventh-placed Maritimo with three games to go before the 2021-22 campaign draws to a close.
© Reuters
Elsewhere, Tondela failed to move out of the relegation zone last Sunday when they were held to a 1-1 draw by a resilient Vitoria de Guimaraes side at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
With nothing to separate the sides at the heading into half time, the game finally sparked into life when Rafael Barbosa broke the deadlock in the 63rd minute shortly before Rafa Soares found the target to even the tie.
Prior to that, the CDT Auriverdes booked their place in the Taca de Portugal final for the first time in their 89-year history with a 1-1 draw versus Mafra in the second leg of their semi-final tie after claiming a 3-0 victory in March's reverse leg.
Tondela, who have now failed to taste victory in each of their last four games across all competitions, are currently 17th in the league table, one point off Arouca just outside the drop zone.
While Nuno Campos's men will be looking to end this dry spell and boost their survival chances, next up is an opposing side who they have lost against in each of the last five meetings between the teams since a 2-0 victory back in 2018.
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Pacos de Ferreira will once again make do with the absence of the Portuguese duo of Joao Vigario and Jorge Silva, who have been ruled out through ankle and knee problems respectively.
N'Dri Philippe Koffi continues his spell on the sidelines through an ankle injury while Brazilian international Flavio Ramos remains out of contention after suffering a muscle injury back in November.
While former Atletico Madrid midfielder Nicolas Gaitan is set to miss his fourth consecutive game due to injury, Luiz Carlos should come into the centre of the park after sitting out the game against Gil Vicente through suspension.
Tondela, on the other hand, will be without Portuguese defender Jota Goncalves, who has been out of action since last September through a knee injury.
He is joined on the CDT Auriverdes injury table by 23-year-old Simone Muratore after the Atalanta loanee sustained a severe injury back in October.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Lima, Maracas, Delgado; Carlos, Pires, Santos; Ferreira, Uilton, Butzke
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Manu, Alves, Sagnam; Borges, Augusto, Undabarrena, Bebeto; Barbosa, Agra, Dadashov
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 2-1 Tondela
Looking at past results between the sides, Pacos de Ferreira head into the game as firm favourite to come away with all three points. The Pacenses have lost just once at home this year and we predict they will maintain this fine run and come out victorious once again.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 48.01%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 25.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
