CF Montreal will have to beat Orlando City at the Saputo Stadium on Sunday evening if they wish to extend their campaign beyond the regular season and qualify for the playoffs.
Orlando currently occupy one of the three remaining spots in the Eastern Conference, with Montreal two points behind the side from Florida in eighth.
Match preview
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After a bumpy start to the 2021 Major League Soccer campaign, Montreal have recovered well and put themselves in a position where qualification for the playoffs could become a reality this weekend.
With just one match of the regular season remaining, Montreal have left it late and will hoping to make it back-to-back wins for the first time since mid-September against Orlando.
A 2-0 triumph over Western Conference side Houston Dynamo in their penultimate game of the campaign ended a run of four matches without a win for Wilfried Nancy's men, with anything but three points last time out ending their playoff hopes.
The victory keeps them in touch with the sides in the top seven, yet it means they will have to rely on another team dropping points during the final weekend of action.
Their hopes are significantly improved by the fact they will come up against Orlando, who are one of the three sides that Montreal can catch.
It is less than three weeks since the pair last met each other on the pitch, with Orlando and Montreal playing out a 1-1 draw at the Exploria Stadium in Florida.
However, this time the teams will meet across the border in Canada, where Orlando are unbeaten in their past three visits – a run stretching back to June 2018.
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A positive record on the road against Montreal will offer some hope for Orlando boss Oscar Pareja, who has often seen his team struggle in away fixtures so far this season.
Orlando have won just four of their 16 away matches, whilst losing seven of their encounters on the road, and it is such inconsistency that has cost the Florida outfit from having already booked their spot in the playoffs.
Compared to just two defeats all season at home, Orlando will be wary of the fact they have won just one of their previous 11 MLS encounters whilst playing as the away team.
Qualifying for the playoffs would represent just the second time they have made it beyond the regular season since being inducted as an MLS team in 2015, with the first coming in last year's disrupted season.
A quarter-final finish in their first series offered some optimism for Orlando fans that they may be able to establish themselves as a regular in the playoffs, yet defeat away to Montreal on Sunday would be nothing more than a backwards step.
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Team News
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By far and away the standout name on the Orlando team sheet is former Manchester United star Nani, who has netted 10 times for City this season.
His goals have helped Orlando sustain their position in the top half of the table, and he will be joined in attack by Daryl Dike.
A familiar name to supporters of EFL Championship side Barnsley, Dike's nine goals in 19 games for the Tykes last season helped them to a playoff spot, and having returned to his parent club Orlando, the City fans will be hoping he can keep their season alive too.
Orlando's task will be made harder by a number of absentees, with the most notable being Oriol Rosell, who has made 11 appearances this season.
Rosell will be out with a concussion problem, while Rio Hope-Gund, Raul Aguilera Jr and Adam Grinwis all missing with abdominal injuries.
Similarly, Montreal have had a difficult time of it with injuries of late and Nancy will be without a few first team players for the visit of Orlando.
Mason Toye has scored seven goals in 14 appearances for the Canadian club so far, yet a shoulder injury looks set to keep the forward out for the final regular season match.
A groin strain has plagued the closing stages of the Robert Orri Thorkelsson's season and the promising Icelandic defender will be missing for the hosts once more, while Jean-Aniel Assi is still struggling with a shoulder injury.
That leaves much of Montreal's playoff hopes hanging on the shoulders' of Canadian born winger Romell Quioto, who has top-scored with eight this season and will provide their biggest threat in attack.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Waterman, Camacho, Miller; Bault-Guillard, Hamdy, Wanyama, Choiniere; Torres, Mihailovic, Quioto
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Teixeira, Carlos, Jansson, Mas; Mendez, Urso; Mueller, Pereyra, Nani; Dike
We say: CF Montreal 2-1 Orlando City
The winner takes it all in this MLS playoff-deciding season-ender, with both Orlando and Montreal targeting a place in the top seven.
Orlando hold the upper-hand in terms of league positions and head-to-head records, yet Montreal will be confident of causing an upset in front of their home support.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 52.14%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 25.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
