Both ends of the League Two table will be affected by the outcome of the game at Boundary Park on Saturday, with Oldham Athletic hosting Mansfield Town.
The hosts edged closer to dropping out of the Football League after they lost once again in midweek, whilst the visitors closed the gap on the playoff places after returning to winning ways.
Match preview
© Reuters
Before hosting playoff hopefuls Mansfield on Saturday, Oldham welcomed another side chasing the top seven in the form of Sutton United on Tuesday evening.
A poor first-half display saw Oldham head into the break 1-0 down, and after falling three goals behind in the second 45, Will Sutton's goal nine minutes from time was little more than a consolation.
The result means that John Sheridan's side have now lost five games on the bounce in League Two, and is a dismal run that leaves the Latics on course for relegation.
Sitting in 23rd place ahead of the weekend, only Stevenage's poor run of their own has kept Oldham within three points of safety, but unless Sheridan and his team can find a way to get points on the board in the coming weeks, Saturday's hosts will drop into the National League regardless of results elsewhere.
After recording three wins and four draws from Sheridan's opening seven games upon his return to the club in January, few could have predicted that Oldham would follow it up with five successive defeats to leave them in such a desperate situation, but the past must be put behind them and focus must switch to results on a game-by-game basis.
Meanwhile, Mansfield's attentions are firmly fixed at the top end of the League Two table as they prepare for the trip to Boundary Park.
A narrow 1-0 victory at an out-of-form Rochdale side in midweek, courtesy of a late winner from Jordan Bowery, pulled the Stags to within two points of the playoff places.
With at least two games in hand on all of the sides above them in the table, Nigel Clough's side are presented with an excellent opportunity of achieving their goal, particularly with a favourable trip to another struggling side in the form of Oldham to come on Saturday.
Despite the recent 14-match unbeaten run in the league being ended by back-to-back defeats against Tranmere Rovers and Port Vale prior to the win at Rochdale, Mansfield have continued to defy expectations and continue their improvement on last season's 16th-placed finish.
The three points in midweek saw them surpass last season's points tally already, and with 11 games left to play of the 2021-22 campaign yet, beginning at Oldham, it could be one to remember for Clough and his side should they manage to record another win in this one.
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
Team News
Oldham will be without Christopher Missilou once more on Saturday, with the midfielder recently joining up with national team Republic of the Congo during the international break.
Sam Hart will be missing from the back line for the second successive game due to his two-match ban for his yellow card accumulation, but Carl Piergianni will return after serving his respective suspension for the same reason.
Piergianni's return will be a boost to a defence that has also been missing Harrison McGahey due to injury over the past couple of weeks, and his thigh problem is expected to keep him out of the visit of Mansfield too.
As for the visitors, after tasting success with a switch in formation in the second half in midweek, Clough could opt for a 3-5-2 on Saturday.
The switch could well see Oliver Hawkins move from the striker role that he occupied on Tuesday, to a defensive role in a back three alongside John-Joe O'Toole and James Perch.
Bowery's impact off the bench is likely to see him come into the starting 11 alongside Rhys Oates up front, whilst George Maris could also be restored from the beginning after having to settle for a place amongst the substitutes against Rochdale.
Oldham Athletic possible starting lineup:
Rogers; Sutton, Clarke, Piergianni; Adams, Bahamboula, Whelan, Couto; Keillor-Dunn, Hope, Stobbs
Mansfield Town possible starting lineup:
Bishop; Perch, Hawkins, O'Toole; Hewitt, Maris, Quinn, Longstaff, McLaughlin; Oates, Bowery
We say: Oldham Athletic 0-1 Mansfield Town
Mansfield's late winner in the week is likely to have re-energised their side following their back-to-back defeats prior to it.
With the visitors on the up and the hosts in a desperate situation at the bottom following a dreadful run, Mansfield should be expected to edge out Oldham in this one, albeit likely by a narrow margin with both sides left with plenty to play for.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 50.94%. A win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 25.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Oldham Athletic win was 1-0 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
