Nottingham Forest play host to West Bromwich Albion on Easter Monday looking for the win which could keep them in the hunt for the second automatic promotion place in the Championship.
At a time when Forest sit seven points adrift of second-placed Bournemouth, West Brom are five points behind the playoff positions.
Match preview
© Reuters
With Luton Town now occupying a higher position in the standings, it would be unfair to say that Nottingham Forest's 1-0 defeat at Kenilworth Road represented a shock result.
Nevertheless, on the back of five successive Championship wins, Forest would have expected to have least extended their unbeaten streak to 11 matches in a high-profile fixture.
Sitting four points clear of seventh position with two games in hand on many of the teams around them, Steve Cooper will feel that his team are still in an extremely strong position to finish in the playoffs.
However, Cooper may have to use his squad in a different manner given the quick turnaround in fixtures, sticking with his tried-and-trusted starting lineup realistically no longer an option.
The East Midlands outfit head into this contest having not lost a league game at the City Ground in 2022, a period which currently stands at eight matches.
© Reuters
Having collected just 15 points from his 13 league matches at The Hawthorns, Steve Bruce is certainly not guaranteed to remain in the West Bromwich Albion dugout for 2022-23.
That said, Bruce deserves more credit than he has received for delivering four wins and two draws from eight outings, even if the two defeats during that stint came against local rivals.
The perception would have been slightly different had the Baggies only posted a 1-1 draw at home to Blackpool on Friday, but a last-gasp winner from Karlan Grant has kept West Brom in the playoff race.
Facing a five-point gap to the top six, West Brom realistically need to win their remaining four fixtures, their next two coming against opponents fighting for the same positions.
With their last two fixtures also potentially coming against opposition with little to play, assuming that the relegation battle is done and dusted, Bruce and his players will feel like they can still have a say in the promotion race.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Philip Zinckernagel will almost certainly come back into the Forest XI, likely taking the place of Lewis Grabban.
That should lead to Brennan Johnson being used further forward, while Cafu may be considered to bring some fresher legs to the midfield.
Steve Cook and Max Lowe both remain as Forest's two injury absentees for this game.
Despite their victory last time out, Bruce is likely to make changes to his West Brom starting lineup with Conor Townsend potentially returning at left wing-back.
Second-choice goalkeeper David Button should keep his place with Sam Johnstone having joined the injury list, while Taylor Gardner-Hickman could provide fresh legs at wing-back or in midfield.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; Figueiredo, McKenna, Worrall; Spence, Garner, Yates, Colback; Zinckernagel; Johnson, Davis
West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
Button; O'Shea, Ajayi, Clarke; Furlong, Gardner-Hickman, Livermore, Molumby, Townsend; Carroll; Grant
We say: Nottingham Forest 2-1 West Bromwich Albion
Although both clubs appear to be on different trajectories, it is West Brom who enter this contest with momentum. Nevertheless, we cannot back against Forest at the City Ground, even if we feel that this encounter will be decided in the closing stages.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 48.06%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for West Bromwich Albion had a probability of 24.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a West Bromwich Albion win it was 0-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest would win this match.
