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Norwich logo
Championship | Gameweek 6
Oct 20, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Carrow Road
Birmingham logo
Norwich
1 - 0
Birmingham
Vrancic (87')
Idah (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Clayton (50'), Dean (54'), Friend (88'), Sunjic (90')
Clayton (86')

Preview: Norwich City vs. Birmingham City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Norwich City and Birmingham City, including predictions and team news.

Norwich City will be aiming to win two consecutive league games for the first time in 17 months when they host Birmingham City on Tuesday night.

The Canaries left it late to beat Rotherham United at the weekend, a result which left them two points off the playoff places.


Match preview

Norwich City boss Daniel Farke on September 21, 2019© Reuters

Jordan Hugill's 95th-minute penalty secured a 2-1 win against the Millers after Tim Krul had earlier saved a spot kick from Freddie Ladapo.

A penalty was also decisive in Birmingham's last fixture, as Sheffield Wednesday's Barry Bannan scored from 12 yards to condemn the Blues to a 1-0 loss.

It was Aitor Karanka's first league defeat as manager, but also meant that his side still have not won since the opening day when they beat Brentford 1-0.

None of their games this season – five in the Championship and one in the Carabao Cup – has contained over two goals, giving them one of the division's best defences but also one of the most impotent attacks.

The Midlands club have not won any of their last eight away games, dating back to a 1-0 victory over Barnsley in February.

Birmingham City manager Aitor Karanka pictured on September 12, 2020© Reuters

They travel to a Norwich side who have not won at home in seven attempts, owing largely to the abysmal end to their time in the Premier League last season.

Victory at Rotherham on Saturday came at just the right time after two successive defeats, and Daniel Farke will now hope his side can put a difficult start to the campaign behind them as they seek immediate promotion back to the top flight.

Birmingham have just one win against Norwich in the last 12 meetings between the two sides and have not claimed victory at Carrow Road since March 2002.

Two months later, current boss Karanka would win the Champions League with Real Madrid while in comparison, Farke was playing in the German fifth tier with SV Lippstadt.

Norwich City Championship form: WDLLW
Norwich City form (all competitions): LWDLLW

Birmingham City Championship form: WDDDL
Birmingham City form (all competitions): LWDDDL


Team News

Norwich City's Adam Idah celebrates scoring against Huddersfield Town on September 12, 2020© Reuters

Christoph Zimmermann missed Norwich's win over Birmingham with a calf problem but is expected to be back in contention at centre-back.

Likewise, Todd Cantwell could be involved after not travelling on Saturday, having suffered bruising just above his knee in training last week.

Jordan Hugill's winning goal should ensure he keeps his starting place, leaving Teemu Pukki on the bench again.

Aitor Karanka admitted his team massively missed Jon Toral and Lukas Jutkiewicz on Saturday - the former is out with a groin problem and the latter felt unwell but could be back on Tuesday.

Summer signings Jonathan Leko and Riley McGree both impressed off the bench so could come in to start.

Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Zimmerman, Gibson, Quintilla; Skipp, Rupp; Buendia, Stiepermann, Idah, Hugill

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Dean, Friend, Pedersen; Gardner, Clayton; Leko, McGree, Bela; Hogan


SM words green background

We say: Norwich City 1-0 Birmingham City

Buoyed by victory over Rotherham, Norwich are in a good place to earn another three points on Tuesday night. Birmingham will not make it easy for them, but the Blues' lack of attacking threat makes it hard to see them getting anything from the game.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 43.58%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Norwich City in this match.


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Rotherham United's Matt Crooks and Norwich City's Ben Gibson in action in the Championship on October 17, 2020
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