Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dungannon Swifts win with a probability of 55.41%. A win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 22.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dungannon Swifts win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Carrick Rangers win was 1-2 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dungannon Swifts would win this match.