NIFL Premiership | Gameweek 5
Aug 31, 2024 at 3pm UK
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Crusaders
2 - 1
Carrick

Larmour (64'), Offord (65')
Buchanan-Rolleston (26'), Glendinning (45+2'), Jewitt-White (81')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Allen (7')
Stewart (49'), Heatley (77'), Stewart (78'), Heatley (90+6')
Coverage of the NIFL Premiership clash between Crusaders and Carrick Rangers.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crusaders

All competitions
NIFL Premiership
Last Game: Crusaders 1-1 Cliftonville
Saturday, August 24 at 3pm in NIFL Premiership

Carrick Rangers

All competitions
NIFL Premiership
Last Game: Carrick 2-3 Glentoran
Friday, August 23 at 7.45pm in NIFL Premiership

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 52.1%. A win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 24.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Carrick Rangers win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Crusaders in this match.

Result
CrusadersDrawCarrick Rangers
52.1% (0.492 0.49)23.41% (0.105 0.11)24.49% (-0.597 -0.6)
Both teams to score 56.4% (-1.005 -1.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.59% (-1.029 -1.03)44.41% (1.029 1.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.22% (-1.006 -1.01)66.78% (1.004 1)
Crusaders Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.94% (-0.20099999999999 -0.2)17.06% (0.2 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.77% (-0.354 -0.35)47.23% (0.352 0.35)
Carrick Rangers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68% (-1.043 -1.04)32% (1.042 1.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.54% (-1.206 -1.21)68.46% (1.205 1.21)
Score Analysis
    Crusaders 52.1%
    Carrick Rangers 24.49%
    Draw 23.41%
CrusadersDrawCarrick Rangers
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.029 0.03)
1-0 @ 9.65% (0.362 0.36)
2-0 @ 8.54% (0.266 0.27)
3-1 @ 5.73% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-0 @ 5.03% (0.124 0.12)
3-2 @ 3.27% (-0.107 -0.11)
4-1 @ 2.54% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.23% (0.041 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.44% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 3.95%
Total : 52.1%
1-1 @ 11% (0.11 0.11)
2-2 @ 5.54% (-0.144 -0.14)
0-0 @ 5.46% (0.239 0.24)
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.078 -0.08)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 23.41%
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.121 -0.12)
0-1 @ 6.22% (0.1 0.1)
0-2 @ 3.54% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.38% (-0.117 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.11% (-0.117 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.35% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 24.49%

Head to Head
May 1, 2024 7.45pm
Crusaders
3-1
Carrick
Lecky (7', 54'), Nixon (45+1')
Lecky (76')
Purkis (45+3')
Cushley (9'), Watson (56')
Dec 30, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 24
Crusaders
2-0
Carrick
Heatley (49'), Owens (65')
Clarke (45')

Forsythe (42'), Mitchell (62')
Forsythe (60')
Dec 8, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Carrick
0-1
Crusaders

McGuckin (76'), Macuilaitis (81'), Glendinning (89')
Lowry (45')
Robinson (58'), Heatley (87'), Joe Burns (89'), Larmour (90')
Aug 22, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 1
Crusaders
9-0
Carrick
Heatley (11'), Kennedy (21', 25' pen., 28', 40'), Lowry (47'), Joe Burns (54'), Callacher (63'), Teelan (79')
Clarke (74')

Crowe (68'), Andrews (86')
Cherry (24')
Mar 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 33
Crusaders
3-0
Carrick
Clarke (66'), Owens (80'), Caddell (87')