Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 45.35%. A win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Carrick Rangers win was 1-0 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crusaders would win this match.