New York City FC hope to earn their first points in the Major League Soccer regular season when they host FC Cincinnati at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
The Pigeons squandered a 1-0 lead in their opening match, losing 2-1 to DC United, while FC Cincinnati let a two-goal lead against Nashville slip away but still came away with a 2-2 draw.
Match preview
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In 2020 New York City took a big step backwards in the regular season, finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference after coming in first in 2019.
They were at their best when playing in front of their home fans, earning seven victories at Yankee Stadium, tied for third-most among MLS clubs last season.
Former Celtic boss Ronny Deila was brought in to take this team to a title, something they have failed to do in their previous five MLS campaigns, never making it beyond the quarter-finals.
One reason why they sputtered a little in 2020 could have to do with a lack of discipline, as the Pigeons had the second-most cautions in the league with 52.
There are still plenty of matches to be played, but FC Cincinnati boss Jaap Stam would have been buoyed by what he saw in their opening game.
Given this team did not earn a single point until matchday five last season, they already find themselves ahead of their 2020 curve, despite throwing away their two-goal lead against Nashville last time out.
They will take any psychological edge they can get against New York, a team they have never beaten in the regular season, losing all four contests against them by a combined score of 15-4.
Cincinnati only won one MLS game away from home in the 2020 regular season, but New York will see a very different team than the one they beat 4-0 in 2020.
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Team News
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Deila will have to contend with more injury concerns heading into this match as new signing Cody Mizell is nursing a groin injury and striker Heber is recovering from a knee injury.
Gedion Zelalem, Justin Haak, and Tony Rocha all missed the opening fixture with injuries.
The club is still trying to sort out the visa situation for Brazilian striker Thiago which means Valentin Castellanos and Ismael Tajouri will have to step up and score some more goals.
A busy off-season for FC Cincinnati has paid dividends early on as newcomers Brenner and Luciano Acosta scored against Nashville, and goalkeeper Przemyslaw Tyton made a career-high 11 saves.
Acosta and Tyton were named to the MLS Team of the Week, the first time anyone from this side has made the weekly roster in the first week of an MLS campaign.
Centre-back Maikel van der Werff has a groin strain, striker Franko Kovacevic is dealing with a muscle injury, and right-back Zico Bailey has a concussion.
Meanwhile, they are still working on getting visas for Isaac Atanga and Gustavo Vallecilla.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Thorarinsson, Amundsen, Chanot, Tinnerholm; Parks, Sands, Tajouri, Moralez, Medina; Castellanos
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Matarrita, Pettersson, Hagglund, Gyau; Harris, Locadia, Mokotjo, Barreal; Acosta; Brenner
We say: New York City FC 2-2 FC Cincinnati
Cincinnati proved last week they can compete and score goals against a solid defensive unit like Nashville, and this week they will face another in New York City FC.
The Pigeons are missing a solid attacking presence, but lucky for them Cincinnati showed last week they still have a long way to go to be a strong defensive side.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 69.7%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 12.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 1-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.14%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-2 (3.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
