UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Iceland national football team
Nations League | League A
Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Laugardalsvöllur
Belgium national football team

Iceland
1 - 2
Belgium

Mar Saevarsson (17')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Lukaku (9', 38' pen.)
Witsel (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Iceland and Belgium, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 60.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 16.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.97%) and 1-2 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-0 (5.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
IcelandDrawBelgium
16.36%22.7%60.95%
Both teams to score 46.1%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.19%51.81%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.43%73.57%
Iceland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.27%44.73%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.28%80.72%
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.42%16.58%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.62%46.38%
Score Analysis
    Iceland 16.36%
    Belgium 60.94%
    Draw 22.69%
IcelandDrawBelgium
1-0 @ 5.97%
2-1 @ 4.31%
2-0 @ 2.4%
3-1 @ 1.16%
3-2 @ 1.04%
Other @ 1.48%
Total : 16.36%
1-1 @ 10.72%
0-0 @ 7.42%
2-2 @ 3.88%
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 22.69%
0-1 @ 13.32%
0-2 @ 11.97%
1-2 @ 9.63%
0-3 @ 7.17%
1-3 @ 5.77%
0-4 @ 3.22%
1-4 @ 2.59%
2-3 @ 2.32%
0-5 @ 1.16%
2-4 @ 1.04%
1-5 @ 0.93%
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 60.94%

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