The footballing gods should not deliver a drab affair between two sides whose defining qualities lie in the final third, although losing top scorer Lukaku is a killer blow for Belgium.
Poland would have expected a greater margin of victory against a makeshift Wales XI, though, and with Martinez issuing a rallying cry to his Belgium side to respond, we have faith in the world's second-ranked nation to get back on track.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 55.5%. A win for Poland had a probability of 22.8% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
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