/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fbellog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fpollog.png)
-
Axel Witsel
36'
-
Axel Witsel
42'
-
Kevin De Bruyne
59'
-
Leandro Trossard
73'
-
Leandro Trossard
80'
-
Leander Dendoncker
83'
-
Lois Openda
90'+3'
-
Grzegorz Krychowiak
14'
-
Robert Lewandowski
28'
Belgium vs Poland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F22%2F12%2Froberto-martinez.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 55.5%. A win for Poland had a probability of 22.8% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
Result
Belgium
55.5%
▼
(-0.05)
Draw
21.7%
▼
(-0.01)
Poland
22.8%
▲
(+0.05)
Both Teams to Score:
60.28%
▲
(+0.10)
Goals
Over 2.5
61.65%
▲
(+0.10)
Under 2.5
38.34%
▼
(-0.11)
Over 3.5
39.37%
▲
(+0.11)
Under 3.5
60.63%
▼
(-0.11)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5
86.22%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 0.5
13.78%
▼
(-0.03)
Over 1.5
58.91%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 1.5
41.09%
▼
(-0.05)
Poland Goals
Over 0.5
69.91%
▲
(+0.10)
Under 0.5
30.09%
▼
(-0.10)
Over 1.5
33.78%
▲
(+0.12)
Under 1.5
66.22%
▼
(-0.12)
Score analysis
Belgium
55.5%
Draw
21.7%
Poland
22.8%
Belgium
2-1
@
9.78%
▼
(-0.01)
1-0 @ 8.22% ▼ (-0.04)
2-0 @ 8.14% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 6.46% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 5.38% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.88% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 3.2% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 2.67% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.92% ▲ (+0.01)
5-1 @ 1.27% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.06% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 55.5%
1-0 @ 8.22% ▼ (-0.04)
2-0 @ 8.14% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 6.46% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 5.38% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.88% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 3.2% ▲ (+0.01)
4-0 @ 2.67% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.92% ▲ (+0.01)
5-1 @ 1.27% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.06% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 55.5%
Draw
1-1
@
9.87%
▼
(-0.02)
2-2 @ 5.87% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 21.7%
2-2 @ 5.87% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 21.7%
Poland
1-2
@
5.93%
▲
(+0.01)
0-1 @ 4.98% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 2.99% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.37% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.35% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 22.8%
0-1 @ 4.98% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 2.99% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.37% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.35% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.2% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 22.8%