Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Barnet had a probability of 33.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Barnet win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that York City would win this match.