Barnet
FA Cup | Fourth Round Qualifying
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Hive Stadium

Barnet
4 - 0
Chelmsford City

Stead (26', 41'), Glover (75'), Brunt (90')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Penney (68')
Coverage of the FA Cup Fourth Round Qualifying clash between Barnet and Chelmsford City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barnet 3-1 Boston
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Chelmsford City 4-2 Eastbourne
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnet win with a probability of 60.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Chelmsford City had a probability of 18.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barnet win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 1-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Chelmsford City win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnet would win this match.

Result
BarnetDrawChelmsford City
60.65% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09)20.88% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)18.47% (0.077000000000002 0.08)
Both teams to score 56.06% (0.113 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.34% (0.078000000000003 0.08)40.66% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.95% (0.077999999999996 0.08)63.04% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Barnet Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.01% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)12.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)39.49%
Chelmsford City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.42% (0.13 0.13)35.57% (-0.133 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.65% (0.135 0.14)72.34% (-0.137 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    Barnet 60.65%
    Chelmsford City 18.47%
    Draw 20.88%
BarnetDrawChelmsford City
2-1 @ 9.95% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 9.63% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-0 @ 9.43% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-1 @ 6.77% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 6.55% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.5% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.46% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 3.34% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.79% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.41%
5-0 @ 1.37% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 60.65%
1-1 @ 9.75% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-2 @ 5.14% (0.018 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.62% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 20.88%
1-2 @ 5.04% (0.018 0.02)
0-1 @ 4.77% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 2.47% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.77% (0.012 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.74% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 18.47%

Head to Head
Jul 22, 2024 7.45pm
Club Friendlies 3
Chelmsford City
1-1
Barnet
Crichlow (63')
Browne (77')
Nov 14, 2022 7.30pm
First Round Replays
Chelmsford City
0-1
Barnet
Kanu (74')
Nov 5, 2022 3pm
First Round
Barnet
1-1
Chelmsford City
Wynter (49')
Ruff (90+2')