Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salisbury win with a probability of 37.25%. A win for Hemel Hempstead Town had a probability of 35.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salisbury win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Hemel Hempstead Town win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Salisbury would win this match.