Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Darlington win with a probability of 51.74%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Darlington win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 1-2 (6.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.